Nature, 2026.
(with Maryam Abubakar and Daniel Perlman)
Available at: https://rdcu.be/e7UoL
Abstract: Globally, as many as 12 million girls marry before the age of 18 every year; in northernNigeria, 80% of girls marry before 18. Although such marriages may be deemed the best available option by many girls and parents, numerous studies suggest that, when delayed marriage is made possible, it benefits educational attainment, improves health by reducing maternal mortality and morbidity, and leads to many other benefits to girls’ lives. Despite this, little is known about what reduces child marriage, and successful interventions tend to have an impact of just a few percentage points. We use a paired cluster-randomized trial in 18 communities to rigorously evaluate a locally tailored big-push intervention called Pathways to Choice in northernNigeria. We show that Pathways decreases rates of marriage among adolescent girlsfrom 86% in the control group to only 21% in the treatment group—just over an 80%decrease. Although a key part of Pathways’ effect is a significant increase in girls re-enrolling in school, education alone cannot explain its effects on child marriage.We argue that Pathways’ whole-community focus reduces the likelihood of social backlash and contributes meaningfully to its success. Our results demonstrate that a big push can significantly alter entrenched, normative behaviour around child marriage, and that bundled interventions may be greater than the sum of their parts.
Previously titled "Pathways to Choice: Delaying Marriage and Increasing Education via Safe Spaces."
Policy Brief: See here.
CEGA Working Paper Series: See here.
Media: VoxDev Blog Post, Nature News, La Vanguardia
Journal of Public Economics, vol. 236, 2024.
Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105154
Abstract: The ability of the state to collect tax revenue is a crucial indicator in the process of economic development, yet the functioning of tax compliance in low-capacity countries remains poorly understood. Using a randomized evaluation, I study a simple text message reminder scheme implemented by the Uganda Revenue Authority, which increases tax compliance by 7%. This average effect masks substantial treatment effect heterogeneity by an index of the presence of public services, measured via a granular, nationwide dataset on government service provision. The finding that the treatment was most effective where the state is least present shows how digital technology can extend beyond the brick-and-mortar presence of the government, expanding the reach of the state.
SSRN Working Paper: See here.
Media: VoxDev Podcast, IGC Blog Post, The Conversation, included in J-PAL Policy Insight Brief, LUMS Live Session
World Bank Economic Review, 2024.
Available at: https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhae008
Abstract: Decentralization is an important and commonplace type of reform, yet our understanding of its effects remains limited. This paper documents the effects of the 2009-10 wave of district creation in Uganda, which increased the country's districts by 42%, using rich data on sub-district units to assess the effects of district creation on a broad range of post-decentralization outcome in a difference-in-differences framework. The effects of decentralization are concentrated in newly split off -- rather than split from -- districts, and are heterogeneous across outcome types. Newly split-off districts have more per capita frontline workers, but appear to have worse quality infrastructure and lower economic development. The study also presents suggestive evidence that administrative capacity decreases for newly formed districts post-split. These findings demonstrate the importance of considering a broad range of outcomes when thinking about decentralization.
(with Rebecca Walcott and Denise Ferris)
Evaluation Review, 2023.
Available at: https://doi.org/10.1177/0193841X231221303
Abstract: When and how to survey potential respondents is often determined by budgetary and external constraints, but choice of survey modality may have enormous implications for data quality. Different survey modalities may be differentially susceptible to measurement error attributable to interviewer assignment, known as interviewer effects. In this paper, we leverage highly similar surveys, one conducted face-to-face (FTF) and the other via phone, to examine variation in interviewer effects across survey modality and question type. We find that while there are no cross-modality differences for simple questions, interviewer effects are markedly higher for sensitive questions asked over the phone. These findings are likely explained by the enhanced ability of in-person interviewers to foster rapport and engagement with respondents. We conclude with a thought experiment that illustrates the potential implications for power calculations, namely, that using FTF data to inform phone surveys may substantially underestimate the necessary sample size for sensitive questions.
World Development, vol. 164, 2023.
Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.106180
Abstract: The fiscal response of aid recipients is crucially important to understanding the effects of aid. The dynamics of governments’ fiscal response to receiving aid can help reconcile the micro-macro aid puzzle, as well as having important implications for studying the micro effects of aid. I explore, in the context of Uganda from 2010 to 2017, whether IDA aid crowds out or crowds in government spending at the district level. To do so, I use an instrumental variables approach combining subnational variation with temporal variation and rich and detailed data on project aid and government budgets in Uganda. I find evidence that IDA funding leads to increases in government spending, and further evidence that these dynamics are more complex than simple follow-on in the same sector as IDA projects. These results suggest critical and underexplored dynamics in subnational fiscal responses to foreign aid, which may have important implications for the study of aid effectiveness.
(with Katerina Linos, Melissa Carlson, Laura Jakli, Nadia Dalma, Afroditi Veloudaki, and Stavros-Nikiforos Spyrellis)
Public Administration Review, vol. 82 (4), 2021.
Available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/puar.13437
Abstract: Governments and NGOs are switching to phone- and Internet-based communication technologies to reduce costs and broaden access to public services. However, these technological shifts can backfire if they exacerbate administrative burden in high-need communities. We conducted a randomized controlled trial in Greece evaluating which communication mode best allows disadvantaged groups to solicit information about free services. Subjects were 18 times more likely to use a prepaid postcard and eight times more likely to use a postcard requiring postage than a hotline or email to seek information about free dental care. Focus groups indicate that low self-efficacy greatly limits disadvantaged groups’ willingness to use newer technologies for bureaucratic inquiries. We demonstrate that the administrative burden associated with technological shifts is larger than previously believed and that widespread psychological barriers include not only the stigma of welfare receipt, but also the stigma of mishandling a conversation with a bureaucrat.
(with Alberto Chong, Erica Field, Eduardo Nakasone, and Maximo Torero)
American Economic Journal - Applied Economics, vol. 8 (4), 2016.
Available at: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/app.20140494
Abstract: Do nutritional deficiencies contribute to the intergenerational persistence of poverty by reducing the earnings potential of future generations? To address this question, we made available supplemental iron pills at a health center in rural Peru and encouraged adolescents to take them via media messages. School administrative data provide novel evidence that reducing iron deficiency results in a large and significant improvement in school performance and aspirations for anemic students. Our findings demonstrate that combining low-cost outreach efforts and local supplementation programs can be an affordable and effective method of reducing rates of adolescent iron deficiency anemia.
(with Sher Afghan Asad)
Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5245840.
Digital monitoring technologies promise “automated enforcement,” but in many low-capacity states, compliance cannot be mandated—firms must be induced to opt in. We study what such reforms deliver when participation is voluntary, and enforcement credibility is limited. Using administrative panel data matched to transaction-level device records from a real-time reporting program in Pakistan, we track both selection into integration and the dynamic effects of adoption. Take-up is sharply selected: adopters are firms already more engaged with the tax system before integration. Conditional on adoption, reported activity and tax payments rise immediately but fade within months, consistent with learning about the authority’s ability to sustain follow-up. Finally, incentive design shapes the reform’s equilibrium effects: linking preferential rates to restrictions on input-credit claims shifts reporting away from inputs documentation, weakening the self-enforcing VAT chain. The results highlight credibility and design—not technology alone—as central to digital state-building.
(with Emma Riley)
Accepted at the Journal of Development Economics based on pre-results review: https://afosterri.org/jdepreresults/sample-page/
(with Emma Riley and Abiola Oyebanjo)
Pre-trial registration: https://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/14394
(with Sher Afghan Asad)
Pre-trial registration: https://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/16251
(with Alison Drake)
(with Aisha Bello, Bilkisu Abba, Aminu Bello Gurin, and Daniel Perlman)
Pre-trial registration: https://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/9170
(with Adefunke Ekine, Oyeteju Odufuwa, Oluwatoyin Adebayo, Grace Abban-Ampiah, and Erik Andersen)